GS周报：关税、复苏受阻、波音政治飞机共同构成滞涨

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全球宏观

转债市场

一个事实是，转债历史上很少表现出相对股票的领先性。虽然曾有投资者考虑过，是否转债的估值反映股市的预期，且机构投资者比例也更高，因而具备一定领先性 —— 但数据不曾支持这样的假说，而且逻辑上也很容易逆向说明。但近期投资者确实有这样的体感，转债在清明节假期后就有了一定程度上的领先性，我们在此简单说明。

下图是万得全A等权和转债等权的对比图，15分钟维度。“领先”的感受可能来自两点，第一是4月7日的下跌，转债跌幅明显偏小，也更早趋于稳定。第二是高、低点的出现，这个阶段，转债的低点在4月7日收盘附近，在4月10日的10点15分前后见到高点，随后正股震荡调整，估值亦有压缩。

原因分析：

我们的理解如下：

首先，我们仍不能将“估值反映股市的预期，且机构投资者比例也更高”作为理由，毕竟长期数据不支持这个说法。一方面，估值究竟在反映预期还是情绪，是比较难分辨的，历史上也没有"估值高 —> 后期股市走强"的反应链条 —— 而更多是“前期股市走强 —> 转债估值走高”；另外，我们也不能认为兼具多种投资者的转债市场，有比专注股票的投资者更领先的信息；

我们认为，这主要来自负债端的反应时间差，在2020年海外疫情阶段存在类似的反应。节后大幅低开时，负债端投资者更多在超预期的同时考虑反弹甚至加码博弈底部。而随着快速反弹阶段的过去，负债端才逐渐见注意力转移到产品的回撤、目标收益是否还能完成上。当然，这个阶段债市走强，债底也贡献了一些支持；

转债本身的自由灵活度更高，暂不论对公募机构投资者而言的意义，对于散户、私募、自营等投资者，转债可以T+0交易，近期由于海外的不确定性提高，在不开盘的时间里，可能会有较多影响市场的信息出现，因而投资者日内交易的需求自然提高。

应对策略：

随着近期调整，“甜点品种”比例提升（只是暂未到达绝对的高胜率、高赔率区位），均价亦有降低。对于需要有仓位和操作的投资者来说，这次也许可以先从中低价开始考虑，因为历史上，这一部分更不依赖太精准的择时。

2. 但不应忽略的是，调整后不少品种的动量值走低（我们惯用120日维度），这会制约低价策略的安全性。直观的例子是近期的光伏转债，回撤背后自有机构底仓面临的流动性调节问题，投资者亦有开始探讨信用问题的声音 —— 但我们不认为转债的债底支撑是原生、独立于股价的问题，更根本的问题是其动量已经转负。此外，如晶澳转债下修未能通过股东大会可能也对市场预期有所影响，但这样的问题也主要发生在动量偏弱的情况下。因此，我们提醒投资者在考虑低价品种时，不应忽略这个约束条件。

3. 以观察转债的标准来看，小盘风格也比红利风格走得更加超前，见顶更早、调整得也更深入。目前是大盘价值（也体现为红利）的强势时期，也尚未过热。技术上看，也支持这类风格率先进入上行趋势。对固收+投资者来说，现在配红利仍更占优，而对转债来说好的信号是，小盘的换手率从这周开始压缩，后续关注其情绪出清的进程，现阶段也要为这样的机会留出一些仓位。结合前面的讨论，近期仍去选择一部分低溢价、“高希腊字母”的品种。但也需要搭配一些近期调整出来的低价机会

海外报告

波音客机从中国返回美国，成为特朗普关税战受害者 Boeing jet returns to US from China, a victim of Trump's tariff war

SEATTLE, April 19 (Reuters) - A Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab jet intended for use by a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker's U.S. production hub on Sunday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by President Donald Trump in his global trade offensive. 西雅图，4 月 19 日（路透社）- 一架波音（BA.N）飞机原计划由中国航空公司使用，周日返回制造商的美国生产基地，这是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在全球贸易攻势中发起的以牙还牙的双边关税的受害者。 The 737 MAX, which was meant for China's Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle's Boeing Field at 6:11 p.m. (0111 GMT), according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery. 根据路透社目击者的说法，这架原本打算交付给中国厦门航空的 737 MAX 飞机于当地时间晚上 6:11（格林威治标准时间 0111）降落在西雅图的波音机场。飞机涂装了厦门航空的涂装。 The jet, which made refueling stops in Guam and Hawaii on its 5,000-mile (8,000-km) return journey, was one of several 737 MAX jets waiting at Boeing's Zhoushan completion center for final work and delivery to a Chinese carrier. 这架飞机在其 5,000 英里（8,000 公里）的返程中在关岛和夏威夷进行了加油停留，是几架等待在波音舟山完成中心进行最终工作并交付给中国航空公司的 737 MAX 飞机之一。 Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. In retaliation, China has imposed a 125% tariff on U.S. goods. A Chinese airline taking delivery of a Boeing jet could be crippled by the tariffs, given that a new 737 MAX has a market value of around $55 million, according to IBA, an aviation consultancy. 本月，特朗普将针对中国进口商品的基准关税提高到 145%。作为报复，中国对美国商品征收了 125%的关税。根据航空咨询公司 IBA 的数据，一架新的 737 MAX 的市场价值约为 5500 万美元，因此，一家中国航空公司接收的波音飞机可能会因关税而陷入困境。 It is not clear which party made the decision for the aircraft to return to the U.S. Boeing did not immediately respond to request for comment. Xiamen did not respond to request for comment. 目前尚不清楚是哪一方做出了飞机返回美国的决定。波音公司未立即回应置评请求。厦门航空公司未回应置评请求。 The return of the 737 MAX, Boeing's best-selling model, is the latest sign of disruption to new aircraft deliveries from a breakdown in the aerospace industry's decades-old duty-free status. 波音最畅销的型号 737 MAX 的返回，是航空航天行业几十年来的免税地位破裂导致的新飞机交付中断的最新迹象。 The tariff war and apparent U-turn over deliveries comes as Boeing has been recovering from an almost five-year import freeze on 737 MAX jets and a previous round of trade tensions. 在波音从几乎五年的 737 MAX 飞机进口冻结和之前的一轮贸易紧张局势中恢复之际，关税战和明显的交付逆转出现了。 Confusion over changing tariffs could leave many aircraft deliveries in limbo, with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties, analysts say. 关于关税变化的困惑可能导致许多飞机交付陷入僵局，分析师表示，一些航空公司首席执行官表示，他们宁愿推迟飞机交付也不愿支付关税。

Wall St Week Ahead Busy US earnings week confronts market grappling with tariff fallout 华尔街下周展望：繁忙的美国财报周面临市场应对关税影响的挑战

Summary 摘要 Companies 公司 Tesla, Alphabet first of Magnificent 7 megacaps set to report 特斯拉、Alphabet 等“七大巨头”将率先公布财报 Boeing, Merck, Intel among other companies due next week 波音、默克、英特尔等公司下周也将公布 Focus also on Fed, after Trump slams chair over rates 在特朗普抨击美联储主席后，市场也将关注美联储动态 NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters) - A heavy slate of U.S. company results in the coming week will test a stock market shaken by a U.S. trade policy overhaul that upended the outlook for the global economy and corporate America. 纽约 4 月 18 日（路透社）- 在即将到来的这一周，美国公司的大量业绩报告将对因美国贸易政策改革而受到冲击的全球经济和美企前景进行考验。 Investors remain on edge after President Donald Trump's sweeping April 2 tariff announcement stunned markets and sparked some of the most volatile trading since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. 在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 4 月 2 日宣布的大规模关税措施震惊市场并引发自五年前新冠疫情爆发以来最动荡的交易以来，投资者仍然处于紧张状态。

After rebounding somewhat last week, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab stock index fell this week and was down 14% from its February record high. Volatility levels moderated from five-year peaks but remain elevated by historic measures. 尽管上周有所反弹，但基准的标普 500 指数（.SPX）本周下跌，较 2 月份的创纪录高点下跌了 14%。波动性水平从五年高点有所缓和，但仍然高于历史平均水平。 Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab - two of the so-called Magnificent Seven megacap companies whose shares have faltered after two years of stock leadership - are among those closely watched for financial results as investors seek guidance about the fallout from tariffs that are very much in flux. 特斯拉（TSLA.O）和谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOGL.O）——这两家所谓的“七大巨头”公司股价在连续两年领导股市后出现下滑——是那些投资者密切关注其财务报告的公司之一，他们寻求了解不断变化的关税对市场的影响。 "The view of the CEOs going forward has never been more important," said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America and president of online broker Tastytrade. "展望未来，CEO 们的观点从未如此重要，”IG 北美首席执行官兼在线经纪公司 Tastytrade 总裁 JJ Kinahan 表示。

Companies and investors are grappling with a tariff landscape poised to keep shifting as the Trump administration negotiates with other countries. While he has paused some of the heftiest levies on imports, the U.S. is also locked in a trade battle with China, the world's second-largest economy. 公司和投资者正在应对一个不断变化的关税格局，因为特朗普政府与其他国家进行谈判。虽然他已经暂停了对进口商品的一些最重的关税，但美国也陷入与世界上第二大经济体中国的贸易战。 Economists polled by Reuters this week put odds of a recession in the next year at 45%, up from 25% last month. 本周，路透社调查的经济学家将明年出现经济衰退的概率定为 45%，比上个月的 25%有所上升。 In one corporate report this week that caught the attention of investors, United Airlines (UAL.O), opens new tab laid out two scenarios for the year, including one warning of a significant hit to revenue and profit if there is a recession. 在本周引起投资者关注的某份企业报告中，联合航空（UAL.O）提出了两种情景，包括一种警告，如果出现经济衰退，将对收入和利润造成重大打击。 United's dual forecast provided a type of "roadmap" by acknowledging and quantifying risks, said Julian Emanuel, head of equity and derivatives strategy at Evercore ISI. 联合航空的双重预测通过承认和量化风险，提供了一种“路线图”，Evercore ISI 的股票和衍生品策略负责人朱利安·埃曼纽尔表示。

"Putting parameters on what may unfold is how stakeholders ... make decisions in an environment where traditional guidance is bound to be considered relatively unreliable," Emanuel said in a note on Thursday. 埃曼纽尔在周四的一份报告中表示：“对可能发生的事情设定参数是利益相关者在传统指导必然被视为相对不可靠的环境中做出决策的方式。” Elon Musk's electric vehicle maker Tesla, which reports results on April 22, is in the spotlight in part because of the billionaire's close ties to Trump. 特斯拉是埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车制造商，将于 4 月 22 日公布业绩，部分原因是这位亿万富翁与特朗普的密切关系，因此备受关注。 Alphabet will be watched for any detail on advertising spending and capital expenses tied to artificial intelligence capacity, as investors scrutinize AI project costs. The company was dealt a setback on Thursday, when a judge ruled Google illegally dominates two markets for online advertising technology. 随着投资者审视 AI 项目成本，Alphabet 将受到关注，以了解任何关于广告支出和与人工智能能力相关的资本支出的细节。周四，一位法官裁定谷歌非法垄断两个在线广告技术市场，该公司遭遇了挫折。 All the Magnificent Seven megacap stocks are sharply lower in 2025, with Alphabet down about 20% and Tesla off 40%. 2025 年，七大巨无霸股票均大幅下跌，Alphabet 下跌约 20%，特斯拉下跌 40%。 The Magnificent Seven "led everything to the upside," Kinahan said. "If they can't continue to perform, I think it gives people a pause overall, especially as we're looking for footing after the last couple of weeks." 金瀚安表示，“七大巨无霸股票‘引领了一切上涨’。‘如果它们不能继续表现，我认为这会让人们整体上有所犹豫，尤其是在我们刚刚经历了过去几周的市场动荡之后。’”

Boeing's (BA.N), opens new tab results are also in focus, after China reportedly ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of the planemaker's jets. IBM (IBM.N), opens new tab, Merck (MRK.N), opens new tab, Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab and Procter & Gamble (PG.N), opens new tab are among the major U.S. companies set to post results in the coming week. 波音（BA.N）的业绩也备受关注，据报道中国要求其航空公司不要接收该飞机制造商的进一步交付。IBM（IBM.N）、默克（MRK.N）、英特尔（INTC.O）和宝洁（PG.N）是即将在本周公布业绩的美国大型公司之一。 Projections for U.S. profit growth have pulled back, with S&P 500 earnings estimated to rise 9.2% in 2025, down from the 14% gain estimated at the start of the year, according to LSEG IBES data. Investors are bracing for even greater contraction as companies report results and account more for the tariffs. 美国盈利增长预期有所回落，据 LSEG IBES 数据显示，标普 500 指数公司 2025 年盈利预计增长 9.2%，低于年初预估的 14%。随着公司公布业绩并更多地考虑关税影响，投资者正准备应对更大的收缩。 The market's attention was also on the Federal Reserve, after Trump on Thursday said Fed Chair Jerome Powell's termination "cannot come fast enough," while calling for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. A day earlier, Powell said the Fed would wait for more data on the economy's direction before changing rates. 市场关注的焦点也转向了美联储，特朗普周四表示，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的解雇“来得越快越好”，同时呼吁美国央行降低利率。前一天，鲍威尔表示，美联储将在改变利率之前等待更多关于经济方向的资料。 Investors will be hoping that the heart of earnings season can restore more calm to markets. The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX), opens new tab, an options-based measure of investor anxiety, hit around 60 in the aftermath of Trump's tariff announcement, but has since pulled back to about 30. 投资者希望财报季的“高潮”能够为市场带来更多的平静。Cboe 波动率指数（.VIX），一种基于期权的投资者焦虑指标，在特朗普宣布关税后一度达到约 60，但随后回落至约 30。 Still, that level is well above its long-term median level of 17.6, according to LSEG Datastream. 然而，这一水平远高于 LSEG Datastream 长期中位数水平 17.6。 Ayako Yoshioka, senior investment strategist at Wealth Enhancement, said the index would need to recede to the "mid-teens in order to say maybe that volatility has subsided a little bit." 野口绫子，财富增值的高级投资策略师表示，指数需要回落至“十几”的水平，才能说波动性可能有所缓和。 If it stays around 30, Yoshioka said, "it doesn't mean we're out of the woods." 如果它保持在 30 左右，吉冈表示，“这并不意味着我们已经走出困境。”

Fidelity, Goldman Find Tariff Haven in Asian Consumer Stocks 富达、高盛在亚洲消费股中找到关税避风港

The global trade war is providing a boon for Asian consumer stocks, as investors take shelter in companies that cater to local buyers’ essential needs. 全球贸易战为亚洲消费股带来福音，投资者纷纷寻求在满足当地消费者基本需求的公司中寻求避风港。 Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley recommended Asian consumer staples in reports released after the April 2 tariff barrage, urging investors to turn defensive. Fidelity International said it snapped up battered Chinese consumer stocks, betting the companies will benefit from government stimulus. 高盛集团和摩根士丹利策略师在 4 月 2 日关税袭击之后发布的报告中推荐亚洲消费必需品，敦促投资者转向防御性投资。富达国际表示，它购买了受损的中国消费股，押注这些公司将受益于政府刺激措施。 The MSCI Asia Pacific Consumer Staples Index has risen 5% since April 2, the best performance among 11 sectors and beating the broader benchmark’s 2.5% drop. Supermarket chains Yonghui Superstores Co. in China and Kobe Bussan Co. in Japan have risen at least 19% each, while some other beverage and dairy makers have also done well. 自 4 月 2 日以来，MSCI 亚太消费必需品指数上涨了 5%，在 11 个板块中表现最佳，超过了更广泛的基准指数 2.5%的下跌。中国的永辉超市和日本的高岛屋超市股价均上涨了至少 19%，其他一些饮料和乳制品制造商也表现良好。 It’s a sharp reversal in fortunes for the sector, which had languished as an AI frenzy catapulted tech shares over the past couple years. It underscores a rotation away from growth stocks as US-China trade tensions threaten a global economic slowdown. The cohort is also getting a boost from signs that Asian governments are ready to roll out fiscal stimulus to support spending. 这对行业来说是一个巨大的逆转，过去几年，随着人工智能热潮推动科技股飙升，该行业一直表现不佳。这凸显了随着中美贸易紧张局势威胁全球经济放缓，投资者正在从增长型股票转向防御型股票。这一群体还得到了亚洲各国政府准备推出财政刺激措施以支持支出的支持。

The outperformance signals a “shift in investor mindset from chasing global growth and exports to seeking shelter in domestic demand resilience,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist for Saxo Markets in Singapore. “Investors are starting to price in a more fragmented, protectionist world,” where local policy support and consumption matter more, she said. 盛宝银行新加坡首席投资策略师 Charu Chanana 表示，这一优异表现表明“投资者的心态从追逐全球增长和出口转变为寻求内需弹性的庇护”。她说，“投资者开始在一个更加分散、保护主义的世界里定价”，地方政策支持和消费更为重要。

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While a protracted trade war would spare few sectors, consumer staples have shown resilience in times of economic stress. It also helps that the sectoral benchmark fell for four straight years through 2024, compared to the MSCI Asia information tech gauge’s largely uninterrupted multi-year advance since 2019, suggesting room for catch-up. 虽然旷日持久的贸易战会让少数行业幸免于难，但必需消费品在经济压力时期表现出韧性。与 MSCI 亚洲信息技术指标自 2019 年以来基本不间断的多年上涨相比，到 2024 年，该行业基准连续四年下跌，这也有助于该行业基准指数下跌，这表明有追赶的空间。 The nascent rotation may extend as fiscal stimulus plans are unveiled. Chinese authorities recently listed 48 measures to expand household spending in catering and healthcare, among others, while South Korea raised its supplementary budget plan to 12 trillion won ($8.4 billion). In India, forecast of an above-normal monsoon is expected to improve rural demand. 随着财政刺激计划的公布，新生轮换可能会延长。中国当局最近列出了 48 项措施，以扩大家庭在餐饮和医疗保健等方面的支出，而韩国则将其补充预算计划提高到 12 万亿韩元（84 亿美元）。在印度，预计季风高于正常水平的预测将改善农村需求。 Read more: India’s Consumer Stocks Are Bucking Trump Tariff-Led Risk Off 延伸阅读：印度消费股抵挡特朗普关税引发的风险 Fidelity International took advantage of the plunge in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks on April 7 to boost holdings in consumer staples and some travel-related discretionary names, said Terrence Kan, a client portfolio strategist. He favors mainland-listed shares over Hong Kong-traded ones, given the former may benefit more from Beijing’s support measures. 富达国际利用 4 月 7 日中国和香港股市的暴跌，增加了消费品和部分与旅游相关的可选股票的持股，客户投资组合策略师特伦斯·甘表示。鉴于前者可能更多地受益于北京的支持措施，他更青睐内地上市股票而非香港交易股票。

图5

Asian consumer stocks have also fared better than peers in the US and Europe during the market turmoil, thanks to prompt vows of policy support. 亚洲消费类股票在市场动荡期间也表现优于美国和欧洲的同行，得益于及时的政策支持承诺

In an April 6 report, Goldman strategists raised their recommendation for Asian consumer staples to overweight from market weight, saying they are tilting more “domestic and defensive.” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists took a similar move for the cohort in Southeast Asia on Thursday. 在 4 月 6 日的报告中，高盛策略师将亚洲消费品股票的建议从市场权重上调至超配，称他们更加倾向于“国内和防御性。”周四，摩根大通策略师对东南亚的这一群体采取了类似的行动。 “Consumer staples is not an industry where demand fluctuates greatly,” and there are relatively few names with a large exposure to US exports, said Hironori Akizawa, chief investment officer at Tokio Marine Asset Management International Pte. “A positive scenario would be that central banks will move to cut interest rates, stimulating consumption.” 消费品行业不是需求波动很大的行业，而且相对较少有大量暴露于美国出口的公司，东京海上资产管理国际私人有限公司首席投资官 Hironori Akizawa 表示。“一个积极的情景是，央行将转向降低利率，刺激消费。” In contrast, shares of discretionary goods have suffered on expectations that households will cut back on non-essential spending. The MSCI Asia gauge for consumer discretionaries has fallen over 5% since April 2, the second biggest drop among sectors. 与此相反，由于预期家庭将削减非必需品支出，可选消费品的股票遭受了损失。自 4 月 2 日以来，MSCI 亚洲消费品指数下跌超过 5%，是第二大跌幅的板块。 A risk for consumer staples would be a flare-up in inflation, which can curb enthusiasm for the sector, according to James Thom, senior investment director of Asian equities at Aberdeen Investments. 根据阿伯丁投资公司亚洲股票高级投资总监詹姆斯·汤姆的说法，消费品必需品的一个风险是通货膨胀的加剧，这可能会抑制对该板块的热情。 For now, however, a consensus is forming that staples is a safer bet. The sectoral gauge is expected to offer twice the earnings growth that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index may deliver over the next 12 months. 目前，然而，一个共识正在形成，即必需品是一个更安全的赌注。该行业指标预计将提供 MSCI 亚太指数未来 12 个月可能实现的收益增长的两倍。 “Staples will remain a focus for investors in these conditions, whereas we could see a switch back to the likes of discretionary and service sectors if risk appetite comes back,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney. “I feel this will only occur with a change from the US on tariffs.” staples 将仍然是这些条件下的投资者关注的焦点，而如果我们看到风险偏好回归，可能会转向像可选消费和服务行业这样的领域，”悉尼 AT 全球市场首席市场分析师尼克·特维达尔说。“我认为这只有在美国改变关税政策的情况下才会发生。”